Pre-tourney Rankings
West Coast
2016-17


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
1 Gonzaga 100.0%   1   32 - 1 17 - 1 32 - 1 17 - 1 +24.3      +12.6 3 +11.7 2 72.9 60 +27.0 1 +21.0 1
22 St. Mary's 98.8%   6   28 - 4 16 - 2 28 - 4 16 - 2 +16.2      +8.4 29 +7.8 25 53.3 350 +17.3 15 +19.1 2
74 BYU 2.5%   22 - 11 12 - 6 22 - 11 12 - 6 +7.6      +3.7 77 +3.9 70 86.0 4 +6.3 83 +7.4 3
104 San Francisco 0.0%   19 - 12 10 - 8 19 - 12 10 - 8 +3.9      -1.2 199 +5.1 52 68.7 147 +3.5 110 +3.6 5
110 Santa Clara 0.0%   16 - 16 10 - 8 16 - 16 10 - 8 +3.2      +0.8 150 +2.4 100 58.9 339 +0.8 146 +3.8 4
170 Loyola Marymount 0.0%   14 - 15 8 - 10 14 - 15 8 - 10 -0.1      -0.9 191 +0.8 149 65.2 243 +0.3 155 +0.4 6
227 Pacific 0.0%   10 - 22 4 - 14 10 - 22 4 - 14 -4.2      -2.6 236 -1.6 216 63.7 270 -5.3 243 -6.9 9
240 San Diego 0.0%   12 - 18 6 - 12 12 - 18 6 - 12 -4.8      -2.4 230 -2.4 242 58.7 341 -3.5 219 -2.7 7
265 Portland 0.0%   9 - 22 2 - 16 9 - 22 2 - 16 -6.3      -4.6 287 -1.6 219 64.5 256 -5.8 249 -11.9 10
292 Pepperdine 0.0%   8 - 22 5 - 13 8 - 22 5 - 13 -8.2      -1.5 205 -6.8 328 68.9 139 -6.1 252 -4.1 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Gonzaga 1.0 100.0
St. Mary's 2.0 100.0
BYU 3.0 100.0
San Francisco 4.0 100.0
Santa Clara 4.0 100.0
Loyola Marymount 6.0 100.0
Pacific 9.0 100.0
San Diego 7.0 100.0
Portland 10.0 100.0
Pepperdine 8.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Gonzaga 17 - 1 100.0
St. Mary's 16 - 2 100.0
BYU 12 - 6 100.0
San Francisco 10 - 8 100.0
Santa Clara 10 - 8 100.0
Loyola Marymount 8 - 10 100.0
Pacific 4 - 14 100.0
San Diego 6 - 12 100.0
Portland 2 - 16 100.0
Pepperdine 5 - 13 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Gonzaga 100.0% 100.0
St. Mary's
BYU
San Francisco
Santa Clara
Loyola Marymount
Pacific
San Diego
Portland
Pepperdine


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Gonzaga 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 1   62.2 33.8 3.8 0.2
St. Mary's 98.8% 0.0% 98.8% 6   0.0 0.2 1.6 8.2 20.5 36.5 25.6 4.8 1.1 0.2 0.0 1.3 98.8%
BYU 2.5% 0.0% 2.5% 0.4 2.0 0.0 97.5 2.5%
San Francisco 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Santa Clara 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Loyola Marymount 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Pacific 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
San Diego 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Portland 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Pepperdine 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Gonzaga 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 99.4% 86.5% 66.0% 48.3% 34.4% 24.1%
St. Mary's 98.8% 0.0% 98.7% 68.6% 31.7% 14.0% 5.8% 2.2% 0.9%
BYU 2.5% 2.5% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
San Francisco 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Santa Clara 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Marymount 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pacific 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
San Diego 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Portland 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pepperdine 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 2.0 1.2 96.3 2.5
1st Round 100.0% 2.0 1.3 97.8 0.9
2nd Round 99.8% 1.7 0.2 31.6 68.1 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 91.2% 1.2 8.8 64.1 27.1 0.0
Elite Eight 71.4% 0.8 28.6 62.8 8.6
Final Four 51.7% 0.5 48.4 49.2 2.4
Final Game 36.1% 0.4 63.9 35.6 0.5
Champion 25.0% 0.2 75.0 25.0